A mere 60 days ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine Rogers now would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
